Do global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel consumption exhibit long memory? a fractional-integration analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO₂ emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO₂ emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks have permanent effects. Our fractional-integration analysis highlights that this is not the case.     

TPP语境下版权保护期限的经济分析

在TPP影响日益扩大的情况下,中国据其采取相应的对策已经不可避免。由于美国主导下的TPP对知识产权领域的重视以及美国和中国在版权保护期限上的明显差异,中国在TPP语境下面临着是否延长版权保护期限的困境。文章基于预期效用函数理论,建立了版权保护期限对社会总体福利产生影响的线性模型,并据此对不同的版权保护期限产生的经济影响进行相应的分析。根据分析结果和现实的版权保护期限互相印证,可以发现过长和过短的版权保护期限均会损害社会总体福利,而且欠发达社会的最佳版权保护期限要短于发达社会。因此,中国作为发展中国家的一员,虽然在经济建设上已经取得了相当的成就,但在创意产业方面仍然落后于欧美日等创意产业发达的国家,应当采取的最佳版权保护期限肯定要低于欧美日等发达国家。中国不能为了加入WTO而盲目迎合美国的版权保护期限标准,而必须根据自身的经济利益确定是最适当的版权保护期限。     

目击证人的错误记忆与刑事司法公正刍论

目击证人的证言对于刑事案件的破解和刑事诉讼活动有非常重要的意义，但需要注意的是目击者的错误记忆在多种因素作用下对案件会有不当影响，针对不同案件类型有不同的表现方式。这就需要我们对目击证人的证言在法庭鉴证、程序规则、证据链条方面更严谨细致地予以审查和判断，从而实现刑事司法的正义价值追求。     

Discrete time Wishart term structure models

This paper reveals that the class of Affine Term Structure Models (ATSMs) introduced by Duffie and Kan (1996) is larger than previously considered in the literature. In the framework of risk factors following a Wishart autoregressive process, we define the Wishart Term Structure Model (WTSM) as an extension of a subclass of Quadratic Term Structure Models (QTSMs), derive simple parameter restrictions that ensure positive bond yields at all maturities, and observe that the usual constraint on affine processes requiring that the volatility matrix be diagonal up to a path independent linear invertible transformation can be considerably relaxed.     

Inked: historic African-American beach site as collective memory and group ‘Third Place’ sociability on Martha’s Vineyard

Using data gained from ethnographic research and interviews, this article examines ‘third place’ sociability in the social interactions of the Polar Bears of Martha’s Vineyard, a group of predominantly but not exclusively middle-aged and senior African-American men and women who swim, exercise and socialise together each morning at ‘the Inkwell’ beach. Using Georg Simmel’s concept of sociability and Ray Oldenburg’s third-place theoretical framework, this study explores the key role of the Monday communal breakfast and the function of conversation in establishing bonds between individuals. It further investigates the promotion of strong feelings of social connectedness, belonging, social support, social capital gains and community among its group members. The ongoing sociability and informal rules of the Polar Bears of Martha’s Vineyard has enabled it to become a model group demonstration of third-place community building. The importance of race, class and place is socio-historically investigated within the broader social context of the popular racialised section of the beach, ‘the Inkwell’, of African-American community life, and within the sub-community milieu of group social interaction.     

Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors

This paper provides clear-cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread itself, often used in the literature as a predictive regressor of economic activity. These two factors reflect different information about future economic activity, which is smoothed out by the term spread. The paper shows that the slope factor has predictive power on future economic activity over longer horizons ahead, and thus may be interpreted as reflecting future business cycle conditions. On the other hand, the curvature factor, which enters the term spread with opposite sign than the slope factor, has predictive power on shorter movements of future economic activity which may be associated with changes in the current stance of monetary policy. These results hold for a number of world developed economies.     

一类新的反Smarandache几何级数周期行列式

本文定义了一类新的反Smarandache几何级数周期行列式,并利用初等数论的方法和行列式的性质,对这类行列式进行了研究,给出了它们的通项公式。     

基于HAR—RV模型的中国证券市场异质性研究

随着高频数据可以越来越方便的获得,过去的ARCH模型及GARCH模型已经不能满足高频数据研究的需要。相比于模型波动率,已实现波动率能够更直接、准确地描述波动率的特征。研究表明,已实现波动率具有长记忆特性,其解释之一即为异质市场假说,即市场中存在异质交易者。文章选取了HAR—Rv模型对已实现波动率进行建模,并且通过回归分析,证明了我国股票市场交易者存在异质性。     

长期股权投资核算的权益法

长期股权投资权益法,其特点是投资最初以投资成本计价,以后根据投资企业享有被投资单位所有者权益份额的变动对投资的账面价值进行调整的方法。本文主要讨论了权益法的涵义与适用范围,通过实例分析了权益法下的会计处理思路等问题,并提出了相应的解决对策。     

水泥土搅拌桩在厚度较大软弱地基处理中的应用分析

水泥土搅拌桩复合地基的造价低廉、施工简单、质量容易控制,目前已普遍应用于软弱土地基处理之中。文章根据水泥土搅拌桩在厚度较大的软土中采用悬桩和长短桩相结合的施工经验谈一谈自己的看法。